NMF Commentary
April 23, 2010
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Published by the National Maritime Foundation, New Delhi on April 23, 2010
April 23, 2010
Varuna Complex, Airport Road,
NH - 8, New Delhi - 110010
Tel: +91-11-2615 4901
Tele fax: +91-11-2615652
Website: http://www.maritimeindia.org/
Published by the National Maritime Foundation, New Delhi on April 23, 2010
Defence relations and strategic ties are an important yardstick for assessing overall Defence relations and strategic ties are an important yardstick for assessing overall relations between two countries. Going by the same, the India-Russia relationship can be characterised as “time tested” and based on “mutual trust and understanding”. However, subsequent to the disintegration of the Soviet Union, India-Russia relations have witnessed a period of uncertainty. Moreover, in recent years, Indian foreign policy appears to have witnessed a shift in seeking to improve ties with the United States. Notwithstanding these developments, India continues to nurture relations with Russia.
New Delhi and Moscow have maintained military ties since the former Soviet Union signed the first agreement to supply MiG-21 aircraft to India in 1964. Since then, several agreements have been signed, and today technical cooperation between the two is close to US $50 billion. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), India purchases 77 per cent of its military hardware from Russia. However, recent trends indicate that New Delhi is looking to diversify its sources of weapons import and is sourcing from Israel and the United States as well.
The March 2010 visit of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to New Delhi suggested a new commitment on the part of Moscow to put relations with New Delhi on a higher plane. This was Putin’s fifth visit since 2000 and the period is being hailed as the “Putin Decade”. During the visit, Putin pointed out that “India had been Russia’s strategic partner for decades”. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, on his part, said relations with Russia was a “key pillar of India’s foreign policy”. Russia’s assistance has been of great strategic significance for India. This includes sharing of some critical military R&D information with India, as well as supply of equipment and technology for the construction of military aircraft, aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, ships, missiles, space vehicles and nuclear reactors. Moreover, respecting Indian concerns, Russia has never sold any weapons to Pakistan. Russia has further cemented this relationship by supporting observer status for India in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) despite Chinese reluctance.
Prime Minister Putin’s March visit to New Delhi was occasion for discussions on a wide range of issues of mutual concern and the signing of several agreements, including defence deals worth US $4 billion and a civil nuclear pact. Russia is in the process of building two nuclear power units in Kundankulam, Tamil Nadu and has agreed to construct at least 12 more Russian nuclear reactors in India: six in Kudankulam and six in West Bengal’s Haripur. Russia has also agreed to transfer reactor technology and help in the progressive indigenisation of supplies for the reactors. The India-Russia civil nuclear pact is a major breakthrough for India in energy security.
The civil nuclear pact with Russia is different from the India-US nuclear deal since Russia did not compel India to first clear a nuclear liability agreement. Some experts have expressed their concern over the 123 Agreement of the India-US nuclear deal, claiming that it might compromise India's sovereignty and right to conduct nuclear tests. If India wishes to end this nuclear deal in the future, it will have to return all nuclear reactors and fuel supplied by the USA, along with huge compensation. The 123 Agreement also gives greater leverage to US entities as compared to their Indian counterparts working in the same sector. On the other hand, the nuclear pact with Russia does not contain such stringent provisions and is more balanced, based as it is, on mutual trust and goodwill. Russia also guarantees India unrestricted supply of nuclear fuel under any circumstances.
In the light of this situation, a critical question is how the United States views this India-Russia nuclear pact? It seems likely that the latest nuclear pact with Russia might put pressure on Washington to engage with New Delhi and resolve problems lingering with the India-US nuclear deal. It will be interesting to see the outcome of the upcoming NPT Review Conference in New York in May 2010, as the US aims to get a more meaningful result than the recently held Nuclear Security Summit in Washington. Recently, the United States and India ‘finalised’ the procedures for reprocessing of spent atomic fuel, one of the last outstanding elements of the 2008 civil nuclear energy deal. This could be seen as one issue catalyzed by the India-Russia Civil Nuclear Pact.
During Prime Minister Putin’s visit, Russia and India signed preliminary agreements for the joint manufacturing and development of the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA). India is likely to sign a new contract with Russia to buy 40 additional Su-30MKI multi dynamic fighter aircrafts, bringing the total number of these aircraft imports to 230. This represents a significant boost to the capabilities of the Indian Air Force and will enhance India's aircraft building capabilities in the near future. Russia has also agreed to provide exclusive access to the GLONASS global positioning system, which is indispensable for precision targeting of guided missiles. Both leaders also discussed the progress of assembling Russia's new T-90 tanks (called ‘Bhishma’ in India) which are being built in India under Russian license at a domestic plant near Chennai. Earlier, the licensed production of T-90 tanks had been stalled due to a disagreement with Russia over transfer of technology, which was resolved in 2008. By 2020, India plans to produce around 1,000 T-90 tanks, an undertaking that would only be possible if Russia willingly supplies the related parts and technology.
Russia is the biggest arms and ammunition supplier to the Indian Navy and the recent visit of Putin has benefited the Indian Navy considerably. The two sides signed several deals, including renegotiation on the price of the aircraft carrier, Admiral Gorshkov, sale of 29 MiG-29K fighter jets and an agreement to jointly develop a transport aircraft. By 2013, Russia will hand over the retrofitted Gorshkov to India, complete with 16 MiG-29K fighters. Another batch of 13 planes will provide air power to India's indigenous aircraft carrier under construction at the Cochin shipyard. Gorshkov was bought by the Indian Navy in 2004 and rechristened Vikramaditya. The warship, purchased originally at a price of US $974 million, is currently undergoing a refit at the Russian Sevmash shipyard. Since 2007, the Russian shipyard has been demanding a hike in the price for the warship's refit programme and had revised the cost of the project to US $2.9 billion. Though India and Russia sealed the deal on US $2.3 billion as a revised price for the project, the aircraft carrier refurbishment for India is already four years late and has overshot the budget. In the next two months, India will receive a Russian-built nuclear submarine on a ten-year lease, which will give the Indian Navy invaluable experience for future operations.
The Indian Navy has undergone extensive modernisation and expansion with an intention to make it a credible ‘Blue-Water’ capable force. Russia has helped the Indian Navy by transferring technology and equipment. If this assistance continues, the Indian Navy could soon become one of the most credible navies operating in the Indian Ocean. Empowering Indian Navy will also benefit Russia by helping it to keep a close eye on the strategically important Indian Ocean Region.
During Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s December 2009 visit to Russia, both countries had issued a joint statement expressing concern over recent developments in Afghanistan and expressing their commitment towards restoring peace and stability in the region by tackling terrorism and jihadi ideology. There is a possibility that the US might quit Afghanistan due to financial problems, increasing internal and external pressure. The US policy decision to reconcile with the Taliban and perhaps offer it the option to share power could jeopardise the stability of the entire region, including Central and South Asia and Southern Russia. India will be adversely affected. Fighting terrorism could be more effective if India and Russia prepare a joint road map to take on Islamist extremism. The March 2010 suicide bombings at Moscow metro stations and in South Russia have highlighted the urgency for like-minded states to work jointly to curb terrorism. Speaking on these attacks the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that “The bombings may have Pakistani connections and the militants operating from Afghan-Pakistan border”. Putin’s recent visit to New Delhi also envisioned tackling terrorism but this decision requires immediate implementation as security experts have warned Russia about more terrorist attacks.
Asia remains the main focus of Russian foreign policy and Moscow considers India to be the most important player in the region. Bilateral trade with India is expected to increase from US $7 billion in 2008 to US $10 billion by the end of 2010. At the same time, there is a need to bolster existing mutual cooperation between the two countries on several critical issues such as defence and security, space technology, atomic energy, terrorism and trade. The relationship has now progressed from a buyer-seller to that of a limited co-producer in the areas of design, development and scientific research.
Despite good relations between India and Russia, there are certain chinks in the armour that need to be addressed. This is most so in the area of defence supplies. The lack of transparency on the Russian side appears to be a significant hurdle. This is because sometimes Russian military supplies are sub-standard or ex-stock equipment. Doubts have also been raised on the quality of Russian products, the problem of spare parts, delays in delivery as well as problems in upgrading and modernising.
At a more general level, Russia also needs to liberalise visa and registration formalities for small Indian investors so as to enhance mutual cooperation and trade. On the international front, both countries could work towards cementing their strategic partnerships through BRIC and SCO. There must be a concerted effort to overcome differences, increase people to people contact and conduct joint military exercises. An abiding commitment, positive attitude and strong “political will” are essential for improving bilateral ties between the two countries. This is an opportune time to reinforce the relationship in the backdrop of a rapidly changing global order.
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