Tuesday, April 30, 2013

13th General Election Could Mark A Political Transition in Malaysia


Author: Dr. Amit Singh*
Date: April 29, 2013

‘Multiracial’ Malaysia is gearing up for its 13th General Election (GE) on May 5, 2013. The forthcoming polls seem to be the toughest challenge for the incumbent coalition of Barisan Nasional (BN) that has ruling Malaysia since independence in 1957. While the BN is ‘representing’ the three major political groups of Malaysia - the United Malays National Organization (UMNO), the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA), and the Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC) – the coalition government is perceived as a symbol of Malay-Muslim supremacy in the Malaysian political discourse.

Malaysia is a multi-ethnic but a Muslim-majority state with a population of around 29 million, of which 62% are of Malay origin, 23% are Chinese and 7% are of Indian origin (Malaysian Census 2010). Although Islam is the official religion, other world religions such as Hinduism, Buddhism and Christianity also have sizable adherents among the Malaysian population. It is therefore, reasonable to believe that religion and ethnicity play a pivotal role in Malaysian politics. 

Psephologists foresee this election as being the closest ever in Malaysian history. As in the previous GE which was held in March 2008, the main opposition coalition, People’s Alliance, won an unprecedented 82 out of 222 seats in parliament and five out of 12 state governments. Thereby, they denied the ruling coalition, BN, two-thirds majority for the first time in the history of Malaysia. Present day opinion polls also speculate that the People’s Alliance may emerge as the single largest coalition in this election. However, in the face of fresh alliances or tie ups, the exit poll on 05 May would be a more accurate indicator.

The last GE (2008) underscored that the people of Malaysia were losing faith in the ruling coalition (BN) and also indicated towards the political awakening of the Malaysian population. In 2008, elections were held one year in advance as Abdullah Badawi was only in his fourth year as Prime Minister. It was widely speculated that the early call for a renewed mandate was to prevent former deputy prime minister and the incumbent leader of opposition, Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim, from contesting. By law, he would have been only eligible to contest elections only after April 2009, five years after the end of his controversial conviction on 'sexual' and 'corruption' charges. The other speculated reason for early election was to seek a new endorsement for Abdullah's beleaguered government which had declined in popularity and credibility due to a spate of mishandled economic and inter-ethnic issues.

The March 2008 GE was also held against the backdrop of the historic November 25, 2007 protests staged by the Hindu Rights Action Force (HINDRAF) in Kuala Lumpur which internationalised the pitiable conditions of the ethnic Indians in Malaysia. Under the banner of HINDRAF, thousands of people joined the peaceful protests against the marginalisation, namely in the denial of jobs, fair wages, educational facilities, electoral reforms and equal opportunities and rights. The decision of Malaysian Government to demolish 79 Hindu temples in the name of ‘development’ and forceful conversion of some Hindus added fuel to the protests. The rally was meant to support a $4 trillion lawsuit filed in London in August 2007 by the HINDRAF demanding that Britain should compensate Malaysian Indians for bringing their forefathers as indentured labourers and exploiting them. It also sought to amend Article 153 of the Malaysian Constitution which provides for Malay supremacy. However, the Malaysian government crushed the peaceful protests and linked the protesters with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). This further amplified the resentment against the BN, and especially towards the MIC.

During the 2008 election campaign, the HINDRAF used unconventional methods, namely internet and social media, to highlight the wretched condition of the Malaysian Indians and to put forward their demands and agendas. This resulted in the unification and awakening of the Malaysian Indian society. Consequently, the BN came into power with a simple majority and the MIC was reduced to three seats from the previous nine. Even Samy Vellu, the veteran leader of the MIC, lost the election. Taking the responsibility of the unimpressive performance of the coalition Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi stepped down in favour of his successor, Najib Tun Razak, in April 2009. After taking over as the Prime Minister of Malaysia, Najib tried to improve the socio-cultural and politico-economical condition of the country including the grievances of the ethnic Indians. But it was too little, too late akin to ‘putting a Band-Aid on a fractured leg’.

Nonetheless, before dissolving the Parliament, Najib deliberately provided bonuses to over 1.3 million civil servants, cash for low-income families, smart phone rebates and a cut in the income tax rate in the 2013 budget to garner votes on popular measures. On the other hand, Anwar in his election manifesto has promised free secondary education, lower car prices, an increased minimum wage and greater oil revenues for Sabah and Sarawak states of East Malaysia. But the real challenges confronting the country are improved governance, equal representation and opportunity, a government free of corruption, a dwindling economy and a meek foreign policy.

The forthcoming GE is the first test of Prime Minister Najib since taking over in 2009 and the opposition is fighting elections under the veteran leader like Anwar Ibrahim after a long period - making Malaysia’s elections more interesting. However, there is also a fear in the opposition that the elections will not be free and fair as Najib may use the state mechanism in his favour. Another interesting aspect of this election is that during 2008 GE only 50% of the Malaysian population was internet friendly whereas now two-thirds of the population is on internet and social media, which are likely to play a decisive role this time too. Recently, the social media played a crucial role in the Arab Spring, which successfully led to the political transition in some West Asian nations.

If the forthcoming GE in Malaysia is conducted in a fair and peaceful manner, a political transition is likely to happen which may change the fortunes of Malaysia.

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