NMF Commentary
January 04, 2012
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Myanmar is going through an unprecedented political and socio-cultural transformation. During the past five decades of military-rule, the country witnessed suppression of democratic norms/institutions, human rights violations, armed insurgencies by the sidelined ethnic minorities, detention of the opposition activists and leaders, especially the Nobel Peace laureate Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) and the economic policies enforced by the junta left most of the common people impoverished.
The winds of change in Myanmar started soon after the November 2010 General Elections, which ended the decades-old era of military-rule in the country. The military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) were declared victorious. However, the international community and United Nations (UN) expressed doubts over the credibility of the election-results and termed it as a ‘sham’. In fact, some of the clauses in the 2008 constitution or the third constitution of Myanmar, promulgated by the junta before the elections, barred ASSK, the country’s prominent pro-democratic face, from contesting the elections. Consequently, her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD) boycotted the elections saying electoral laws were ‘unfair’.
Truth to tell, no one expected any reforms under the new ‘civilian’ Government. But the former military rulers surprised their critics by introducing political changes that were unthinkable just a few months ago. Thein Sein, the newly elected President has advocated a reformist-agenda, and has reached out to ASSK (she has been agitating for democracy in Myanmar since more than 20 years and spent almost last 15 years under house arrest). He has gone ahead and established the National Human Rights Commission, implemented of a new labour law in consultation with the International Labour Organisation, relaxed restriction on the media, allowed some economic liberalisation and release of hundreds of political prisoners. Although, the reasons behind this sudden shift remain unclear, but observers believe the Government introduced political reform has been driven by a need to mobilise support for Myanmar’s bid for the 2014 ASEAN Chairmanship.
The recent reforms that include amendments in electoral laws have encouraged ASSK and her party NLD to contest the upcoming by-elections, for nearly 48 vacant seats in the Parliament, to be held in early 2012 (March/April-though no date has yet been announced). To facilitate NLD’s return to the mainstream politics, the Election Commission of Myanmar has already approved its application to officially re-register as a political party and also pledged to hold free and fair by-elections.
The United States and Myanmar
The democratisation process in Myanmar also resulted in the historic three-day visit of the US’ Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton from November 30-December 2, 2011. She was the first US Foreign Policy Chief to visit Myanmar in more than half a century since the then Secretary of State, John Foster Dulles visited the country in 1955.
During her visit, Clinton notably met Myanmar's President Thein Sein and praised the pro-democratic reforms initiated by the new government and urged Naypyidaw to take further steps towards national reconciliation by releasing remaining political prisoners and end ethnic conflicts. She also reminded that the better ties would be impossible unless Myanmar break-off its military ties and suspected nuclear links with North Korea. She told Thein Sein that the US will support more aid for Myanmar and consider re-establishing ambassador-level contact with Naypyidaw, after a lull of two decades, and would also consider easing sanctions if the government shows genuine reforms progress. Balancing both the ruling and the opposition party, Clinton also met ASSK in Yangon.
The US is now appears to be recalibrating its policy vis-à-vis Myanmar as over the time, Washington has realized that the policy of imposing economic sanctions proved counter-productive and rather it motivated Naypyidaw to seek closer ties with Beijing. The maritime manoeuvre of the PLA Navy in the South China Sea also encouraged US to shift its policy framework from West Asia to Indo-Pacific, where most countries are concerned about the growing Chinese assertiveness. Therefore, to balance China in the region, the US is strengthening its alliances and if Myanmar could be made to realign more towards the West, it would be a major game-changer in the region.
India and Myanmar
India’s contacts with Myanmar go back to the pre-Christian era. Myanmar also came under the spell of Indian cultural influence, as Buddhism spread directly from India and indirectly through Ceylon, profoundly influencing all spheres of Burmese life. A large population of Indian origin (according to the 2001 report of the High Level Committee on the Indian Diaspora, the total number of ethnic Indians in Myanmar is estimated to be around 2.9 million) lives in Myanmar without having any political rights or recognition.
India and Myanmar are jointly working on several projects both in infrastructural and non-infrastructural areas, including up-gradation and resurfacing of the 160 km-long Tamu-Kalewa-Kalemyo road, construction and up-gradation of the Rhi-Tiddim Road in Myanmar, the Kaladan Multimodal Transport Project. The bilateral trade between both countries increased significantly from US$ 12.4 million in 1980-81 to US$ 1207.56 million in 2009-10. New Delhi and Naypyidaw are also engaged with each other on regional and sub-regional context through Mekong-Ganga Co-operation, ASEAN and BIMSTEC. In August 2008, Myanmar was given the observer status in the SAARC with India’s help and now Myanmar is eyeing SAARC’s permanent membership as the country is geographically a part of extended South Asia region.
Myanmar’s bid for the entry into SAARC has not been seen differently as India and Myanmar share a long land border of over 1600 km and a maritime boundary in the Bay of Bengal. Myanmar is the largest country touching India’s eastern border and acts as a buffer state between India’s North-eastern region and the Chinese provinces. Myanmar is extremely rich in natural resources, notably oil and gas. Therefore, cordial relations with Myanmar can facilitate India’s energy requirements.
Moreover, Myanmar’s Navy is operating in the Bay of Bengal and India does not want hostile relations with this neighbour, as Naypyidaw shares good relations with Beijing. Chinese Navy is already looking for a strong base in the Bay of Bengal and if Myanmar ‘allows’ Chinese naval forces to have access to the Bay of Bengal, it would be a major threat for India’s security. For maintaining peace in the North-Eastern region, it is in India’s internal security interest to keep the momentum going in the right direction with Myanmar. Most of the insurgent groups active in North-Eastern states of India are using the bordering areas of Myanmar as a safe haven. In fact, on December 3, 2011, there were reports that the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA’s) top leader Lt. Col. Jibon Moran was arrested in Myanmar along with an Indian journalist.
The newly elected President of Myanmar Thein Sein paid a State visit to India on October 12-15, 2011. During the visit India congratulated Myanmar on their transition towards democracy and offered all necessary assistance in further strengthening this transition, in an inclusive and broad based manner. The Prime Minister of India and the President of Myanmar reiterated their shared commitment to strengthening and broadening the multifaceted relationship based on shared history, civilisational ties and close religious, linguistic and cultural affinities, and to take it to a new level.
Conclusion
The continuing democratic reforms in Naypyidaw can be seen as “a new Avatar” of Myanmar, which could have a positive bearing on the entire region. The President ordered ceasefire in Kachin State in December 2011 and the recently signed deal with the southern Shan state is a major step forward. There is speculation that almost all political prisoners in Myanmar will be given amnesty by the end of February 2012. This could be an overt way of meeting international community’s demand, as Hillary Clinton said on a recent visit to Myanmar that Washington wants to see an end to decades of fighting with rebel groups before it normalises relations with Naypyidaw.
After Ms Clinton’s successful visit, the British Foreign Secretary William Hague is scheduled to visit Myanmar in early January 2012 to continue constructive engagement with its government leaders. India too is sending its Army Chief General VK Singh on a five-day visit to Naypyidaw starting from January 05, 2012, to discuss matters related to the internal security.
Like every other nation in this time and age, the future of Myanmar lies in democracy and the transition will be possible if the present government peacefully resolves their decades-old ethnic issues. The Myanmar’s authorities could consider favourably the demands of revising the 2008 constitution since the ethnic groups find no space for themselves in new constitution. Decentralising the power or adopting the federal structure may help in accommodating all the stakeholders in Myanmar. However, the authorities have their own scepticism over federalism and fear that Myanmar would disintegrate under federalism. Here, New Delhi can help Naypyidaw by sharing their own experiences on the decentralisation of powers.
On January 02, 2012, the Chief Secretary of Manipur announced the long-awaited luxury bus service between Imphal and Mandalay, to be launched by March 2012, which will be the first proper link between India and Myanmar. This connectivity holds the potential to integrate India’s North-Eastern region with the broader ASEAN’s inter-connectivity effort in future, with consequential benefits for both, India and Myanmar. This is, therefore, an opportune time for India to substantially, rather than symbolically, recalibrate its foreign policy towards Myanmar. This recalibration can pay rich dividends to its ongoing Look-East Policy.
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